When will the price of Xiaomi phones: an accurate forecast for 2026 and life hacks for purchase

Xiaomi smartphone prices are one of the most talked-about topics among buyers. The brand is famous for its price-quality ratio, but even loyal fans want to save. In this article, we will analyze when it is most logical to expect a decrease in cost, which models will fall more cheaply than others, and how to avoid missing out on a profitable offer. We analyzed data over the past 3 years, studied the company's strategy and the electronics market to give an accurate forecast for 2026.

Spoiler: If you’re planning to buy a flagship Xiaomi 14 Ultra or a budget Redmi Note 13, the optimal savings periods have already been determined, and for those who aren’t willing to wait, we’ve compiled a list of proven ways to buy cheaper right now – without the risk of running into fake or grey imports.

Why Xiaomi Prices Are Falling: 5 Key Factors

The decline in smartphone prices is not an accident, but the result of a clear market strategy, and Xiaomi has several triggers that are guaranteed to lead to cheaper devices, among them:

• 📅 The company annually updates the lines of Xiaomi, Redmi and POCO. Old devices automatically move into the category of "last year" and become cheaper by 15-30%. For example, after the announcement of Xiaomi 14 in October 2023, Xiaomi 13 fell by 25% by February 2026.
• 🎁 Seasonal sales: Xiaomi is actively involved in global promotions: Black Friday, Cyber Monday, 11.11 (Singles’ Day) and local promotions (such as Xiaomi Days in Russia), during which periods discounts reach 40% on individual models.
• 📦 Warehouse cleaning: Before releasing new devices, the company gets rid of the remnants of the old batch, this applies to both official stores and partners (for example, MegaFon or Svyazna).
• 💰 Xiaomi is dependent on Chinese supplies, so fluctuations in the yuan and dollar affect the final price.In 2026, exchange rates are expected to stabilize, which may lead to a gradual decline in prices.
• 🔄 Competition: Aggressive pricing policies by Realme, Samsung (Galaxy A line) and Motorola are forcing Xiaomi to adjust the cost, especially in the budget segment.

An important nuance: POCO smartphones (a sub-brand of Xiaomi) are cheaper faster than others – their price drops by 30-40% 4-6 months after release, due to the positioning of the lineup as “ultra-budget” and tougher competition in the segment.

Xiaomi’s price cut calendar in 2026: when to buy

If you are planning to buy, follow this graph, and we have compiled data from past years and forecasts from analysts (including Counterpoint Research and IDC):

Note: flagships (series Xiaomi Num, for example, Xiaomi 14 Ultra) are cheaper than budget lines. Their maximum discounts fall at the end of the year, when the new model is released. But Redmi and POCO can be taken as early as 3-4 months after release - their price drops rapidly.

⚠️ Warning: If you see a discount on a new model (released less than 2 months ago) more than 30% is a reason to be wary. It is probably a "gray" import or counterfeit. Official stores (Mi Store, Wildberries, Svyaznoy) do not give such discounts on new products.

Which Xiaomi models will fall the most in 2026

Not all smartphones lose in value the same way. We analyzed the dynamics of value over the past 2 years and identified models that are worth waiting for at the sales:

• 📱 Xiaomi 13T — It's already down 22 percent since it was released (September 2023) and it's expected to be priced by the summer of 2026. ~45 000 ₽ (now ~55 000 ₽).
• 📱 Redmi Note 12 Pro+ 5G — One of the fastest-deprecating models. It was worth it in early 2026. ~35 000 ₽, by autumn ~25 000 ₽.
• 📱 POCO X5 Pro 5G — It's already selling at 30 percent less than the recommended price, and by the end of the year, it'll be available for purchase. ~18 000 ₽.
• 📱 Xiaomi 12S Ultra is an aging flagship model, and its price will fall to 2026. ~60 000 ₽ (now ~80 000 ₽).
• 📱 Redmi A2 — The cheapest smartphone of the brand, by the fall of 2026, will cost ~8 000 ₽ (now ~10 000 ₽).

Forecast for new models in 2026:

• 🆕 Xiaomi 14 Ultra – will fall in price by November 2026 by 20-25% (from the beginning of the year) ~120 000 ₽ before ~90 000 ₽).
• 🆕 Redmi Note 13 Pro+ — By the summer of 2026, it will lose value. ~15% (c) ~35 000 ₽ before ~30 000 ₽).
• 🆕 POCO X6 Pro – in 3 months after the release will be cheaper by 25%.

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The best-selling 2026 models are the 2023 model (Xiaomi 13T, Redmi Note 12 Pro+) and will fall by 30-40% by the end of the year.

Where to buy Xiaomi cheaper: official and alternative ways

If you need a smartphone urgently, use these proven methods of buying at a minimum price:

1.Official channels (100 percent guarantee)

• 🏬 Mi Store - branded Xiaomi stores. Here are often held promotions with gifts (earphones, covers) and trade-in (discount for an old phone).
• 🛒 Wildberries, Ozone, Yandex Market — compare prices using Price.ru or Hotline. The difference per model can reach 5,000 ₽.
• 📱 Telecom operators (MTS, Beeline, MegaFon) When buying in installments or with a tariff, the smartphone costs 10-15 cheaper%.

2. Alternative methods (with caution)

• 🌍 AliExpress, JD.com — prices are lower by 20-30%, but there are risks: no official guarantee, there are possible duties%+.
• 🔄 Used market (Avito, Yula, Facebook Marketplace) You can find almost a new Xiaomi with a warranty (the remainder of the factory) for half the price. IMEI at imei.info!
• 🎁 Cashback services (LetyShops, EPN Cashback returns 3-10% of the purchase price in official stores.

Check the IMEI for originality

Make sure you have a check/guarantee card

Test the camera, speakers, sensors

Check the battery (in Settings → Battery status)

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If you buy on AliExpress, pay attention to the options with delivery from the official warehouse of Xiaomi (usually indicated in the description).This reduces the risk of counterfeiting, but the warranty will still be limited.

⚠️ Note: In 2026, Xiaomi tightened its policy on “gray” imports. MIUI or lose support for Google Services. Check the firmware region in Settings → The phone. → Version. MIUI — must have EEA (Europe) or RU (Russia).

How not to lose: 5 mistakes when buying Xiaomi at a discount

Even experienced buyers sometimes fall for the tricks of sellers, here are typical mistakes that cost thousands of rubles:

1. Buying a "European version" without Russian. Some models (for example, for India) do not support Cyrillic in firmware. Check the region in Settings → Additional → Language and input.
2. Ignoring the memory version: The difference between the Redmi Note 13 at 128GB and 256GB can be as little as 2,000 ₽, But then you pay for the expansion of memory 2-3 times more.
3. Buying without verification IMEI. Xiaomi fakes are indistinguishable from the original.Always check the serial number on the site mi.com/verify.
4. Belief in "perpetual discounts." Some stores artificially inflate the price before a share. Use price tracking services (Keepa, CamelCamelCamelCamel).
5. Buy without trade-in. Xiaomi and partners (for example, the Messenger) give a discount of up to 10 000 ₽ For an old smartphone, even if it's broken!

On Black Friday 2023, many buyers took the Xiaomi 13 for the price. ~60 000 ₽, The previous month, it was worth 58,000. ₽. The store simply overpriced before the stock to create the illusion of a discount.

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If you see a Xiaomi smartphone that is 30% cheaper than the average market price, check it on imei.info and ask the seller to send a photo of the box with the serial number.

Forecast for 2026: what will happen to the prices of Xiaomi

Analysts at Counterpoint Research expect the smartphone market to stabilize in 2026 after the recession of 2022-2023. For Xiaomi, this means:

• 📉 Gradual decline in prices for models of 2023-2026 by 10-15% due to market saturation.
• 🆕 More budget-friendly new products. Xiaomi will be more active in competing with Realme and Samsung in the segment up to 20,000 ₽.
• 🔋 Cheaper flagships due to optimization of production (for example, transition to cheaper materials of housings).
• 🌍 Localization of production: Some of Xiaomi’s smartphones for Russia may be assembled in Turkey or India, which will reduce logistics costs.

However, there are risks:

• 💸 Possible price increases for top models due to the rising cost of chips (for example, Snapdragon 8 Gen 4).
• 📦 Cutting back: Xiaomi may stop putting chargers in the box in 2026 (as Samsung did).

If you are planning to buy a flagship (for example, Xiaomi 15), it makes sense to wait until the second half of 2026 - by which time the price will fall by 20-25%. Budget models (Redmi, POCO) can be taken as early as 3-4 months after release.

FAQ: Frequent questions about Xiaomi price cuts